Having avoided making any significant comments on the conflict between the Poroshenko government in Kiev and pro-Russian forces in Donetsk and Lugansk for some time, I truly lack any meaningful new reflections on the fighting that seems to be resuming, given the apparent failure of the cease-fire agreement signed in Minsk last year. Pro-Russian forces, apparently supported by Russian military "volunteers" are now moving on the port of Mariupol to move in the direction of securing a land linkage to Crimea. Acknowledging how little I actually know about the strategic and tactical details on the ground, I am assuming that Ukrainian government forces will be able to divert sufficient forces to repel rebel attacks on Mariupol, barring the possibility that the Russian Federation unambiguously commits heavy artillery assets and/or SPETNAZ detachments in coordination with Donetsk People's Republic militias to seize key objectives around the city.
My principal comments with regard to this struggle remain the same. First, the Russian Federation cannot be allowed to intervene in the internal politics of Ukraine without punitive repercussions. The resumption of the pro-Russian offensive toward Mariupol should be met by new economic sanctions by the U.S. and EU against the Russian Federation if it can be reliably ascertained that Russian-supplied artillery/rockets were responsible for the attack on central Mariupol on Saturday morning that killed at least thirty civilians. If Western governments continue to apply economic pressure against the Putin government, then it seems at least conceivable that the Russian Federation will seek some way to save face in the war of Donetsk and Lugansk rather than accept a continuation of sanctions, reinforcing the negative effects of declining crude oil prices on the Russian economy. On the other hand, I hold to the view that there needs to be some leeway on the part of the Poroshenko government in order for such a strategy to work - Putin doesn't get to look like he accomplished something for the pro-Russian populations of Donetsk and Lugansk if Russia withdraws its material support for the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and the latter are immediately and decisively crushed by Kiev. Further, there needs to be something more than another cease-fire. All sides in the conflict need to come to some sort of a consensus that eastern Ukraine is economically and culturally distinct from Ukraine to the west of the Dnieper and that if the country is to remain whole, individual oblasts need to be conferred some degree of autonomy in economic and cultural matters relative to the central government in Kiev. That does not mean conceding to pro-Russian groups in Donetsk and Lugansk a right to secede, but I think it does imply that the central government in Kiev should concede that a single unitary, pro-European economic developmental vision may not be implemented across the Ukrainian economy in the near future without some significant effort to persuade residents in the Don basin that they have more to gain by looking west.
Lastly, I have to concede at least some level of ignorance on the demographics of Mariupol. In an oblast that has a significant share of ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians for whom Russian is the native tongue, I am personally curious as to whether the civilians killed by pro-Russian rebels on Saturday might have, in life, been at least nominally supportive of pro-Russian groups or, at least, ambivalent toward the Euromaiden revolution and the Poroshenko government. Again, in view of the regional differences that appear self-evident in the culture and economy of Ukraine, it seems that local, democratic self-governance is somehow getting short-shrift in what, for all intents and purposes, appears to be a conflict between Russia and the West being waged between Ukrainian surrogates. To the extent that this is the case, the story of Ukraine at this moment in its history is degenerating into an abject tragedy, irredeemable with regard to the possibilities for economic growth through progressive European integration if, in the process, a brighter future for the people of Donetsk and Lugansk is forced onto them at the end of a gun. With this in mind, I hold to the view that the Poroshenko government needs to revise its strategies for bringing Donetsk and Lugansk back into the fold.
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