Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Brexit, the Scots, Welsh, and Ulster, and England's Grandiose Aspirations to Stand Alone in the Age of Globalization

Earlier on this blog, I significantly advocated Grexit, as the best hope for the Greek economy to achieve a restoration of economic growth and development in the aftermath of its regional monetary mismatch between Greek macroeconomic performance and the strength of the Euro.  I continue to advocate such an exit, notwithstanding the misplaced hopes of various players in the Greek economy to see a reversal on its present economic fortunes through rigorously applied austerity.  The Euro is too strong a currency, in relation to Greek economic activity, to sustain the level of export growth that Greece needs in order to sustain a broader recovery of the Greek economy and realize a sustainable growth path.  Britain, standing outside of the Euro-zone and compliance with the Schengen Agreement, is another story entirely.  Notwithstanding the various exceptions in Britain's relationship to the rest of Europe, the English have exhibited a sustained apprehension and expressive resistance to the idea that free trade with the continent could compel them, over time, to accept a more robust and inclusive connection, with inherent associated costs for English rate payers.  At a time in which Germany, Sweden, and other states are bearing the heavy costs of migration from refugees of the Syrian civil war and the broader virtues of the open state are pointedly coming into question, it stands to reason that broad swaths of the English population, particularly in the Midlands and in economically declining regions of Lancashire, Yorkshire, and other areas (e.g. the region of Birmingham) subject to diverse stresses from economic transformation over the last two decades would look upon the European Union as a latent cause of all ills!!  Acknowledging the stress that has been placed upon wide expanses of the English economy, it is simultaneously worth advancing the argument that progressive economic development in this age of globalization is a double-edged sword for most regions of the global economy, not least for my corner of the U.S., where a range of manufacturing industries (e.g. electrical equipment manufacturing, once a major industry in Western Massachusetts) have left a barren expanse littered with troubled dependents on governmental assistance.  I do not know to what extent the English economy will suffer from departure from the free-trading zone of Europe.  Emphatically, however, it seems clear that the extractive economies of Scotland would benefit significantly from continued inclusion in the wider European economy.  If England, by mere plurality within the broader population of Great Britain, decides to abandon the EU, then it would seem quite likely that the Scots would enthusiastically embark on a new campaign to abandon the UK.  If they succeeded (an extremely likely scenario), moreover, it might only be a matter of time until the Welsh and the Scots-Irish majority of Ulster would proceed in kind to bid mother England fair-thee-well.  In these respects, it would seem that England would be best served by listening to the corporate voices of London City and ignoring the Tory pronunciations of Boris Johnson - England belongs with Scotland, Wales, and Ulster, and all four belong in the EU!

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