Thursday, July 14, 2016

The Genomic "Bomb"

I mean to offer this post, in part, as a statement of frustration with humanity, in the name of peace, liberty, inclusive community, free individual development, and love, sentiments that seem to be utterly at war with various governments, including my own, and non-state/quasi-state entities (I am thinking in particular of the Islamic State).  I watched a particular TED talk on contemporary research with genomes involving a technology called CRISPR (Clustered Regular Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) (see Jennifer Kahn, " Gene editing can now change an entire species - forever ").  CRISPR apparently uses bacterial species to unravel particular segments of DNA in sexually reproducing species to amend such segments, introducing mutations to alter relevant genetically hard wired material in individuals.  The speaker, Jennifer Kahn, further explained how technology now exists to make such mutations repetitive over successive generations.  She, finally, offered a relevant example, concerning management of invasive species (her example, the Asian carp in the Great Lakes), suggesting that it might be possible to engineer a genetic mutation that would cause a sexually reproducing species to only produce male offspring by rendering the XX combination in male gametes to malfunction or otherwise be incapable of fertilizing a female egg, ultimately leading to the population's extinction.  Given ready transmission of individuals over vastly expansive geographic spaces, it is possible, given the pattern of dominance exhibited by CRISPR mutations across generations, that such would lead to the total global extinction of the species. 
        A thought: what if some really intelligent people at a Silicon Valley start up, without any government involvement, were to engineer the very genetic mutation that Ms. Kahn offered in the case of the Asian carp on the human genome, "weaponized" it for rapid and consistent transmission within the gene pool, AND INTENTIONALLY RELEASED IT, to as broad an international spectrum as possible, transcending all manner of class, ethnic, and geospatial lines (say, through fertility clinics, where reproductive materials can be readily assembled and manipulated to generate the appropriate mutation)?  It would take a highly concerted (and entirely clandestine) effort to research the appropriate steps to identify a genomic pathway, to produce the mutation, to disseminate it, and to prevent any disclosure of the mutation to any government or media entity.  The mutation might go undetected for decades, maybe even a century, until, in certain regions, the all too evident sexual disproportionality within the population would reveal, maybe too late, the potential for whole regional populations to crash within generations.  In the process, in particular societies where the mutation begins to reduce numbers of females of reproductive age, males carrying the mutation would be apt to migrate to places with larger numbers of reproductive age females, promoting the explosive diffusion of the mutation across international borders, reducing the proportion of reproductive age females everywhere.  Within maybe 150 years, the global female population might reach a breaking point where entire societies might be on the verge of disappearing and global population falls well below a steady replacement rate.  Assuming enough sophistication went into the mutation's development, moreover, perhaps involving multiple manipulations of different sections of the human genome, it might be really difficult for genetic scientists in the future to pin the mutation down in order to reverse it.  Given the apparent robustness of CRISPR mutations and their capacity to dominate a gene pool, maybe such a mutation could successfully euthanize the entire human species within, say, 350 to 450 years.
        I offer this possibility with a question.  Assuming that what I have just described might be theoretically possible, should individuals capable of producing such a mutation do it?  On its face, the obvious answer would, of course, be no.  After an entire week of media coverage of events like the IS inspired mass murder by truck in Nice, the seeming drift toward something approaching fascism in post-coup Turkey, and the amazing robustness of fascism across many countries right now, I am intrigued with the thought of placing a time bomb within the human genome, if only for fear that the world we are living in may be descending into barbarism.  That is to say, if, one hundred years from now, humanity was mired in a new dark age of religious extremism, xenophobic nationalism, and nuclear-backed imperialism, the thought that science today might have demonstrated the foresight to place our species on a hard deadline might at least be the Enlightenment's last laugh before the horror show and the planet's last hope to be spared any additional pilferage by its most successful invasive species!

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